Jaguar Football - Section 5A prognostication

Our Jaguars line up for the Star Spangled Banner before their season-opening win at Ogilvie. They are positioned for an exciting run at a section championship, something unheard of as recently as two years ago.

(Seed, Team, Overall Record, Section Point Total)


Points awarded: Class A win: 6, Class AA win: 7, Class AAA win: 8.
Class A loss: 0, Class AA loss: 1, Class AAA loss: 2.


Number one seed: K-M-S (6-2) 37 points

#2 Wabasso (6-2) 36 points

#3 Dawson-Boyd (3-5) 20 points

#4 B-B-E (2-6) 20 points

#5 Ortonville (2-6) 14 points

#6 Royalton (2-6) 13 points

#7 Upsala-Swanville (1-7) 8 points

#8 Renville County West (1-7) 6 points

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The seven other Section 5A teams had these results:




Adrian 14, @ Dawson-Boyd 0 (Adrian finished 8-0, #2 Class A ranking)


@ KMS 54, Pillager 16 (Pillager finished 2-6)


@ New York Mills 46, Royalton 14 (NYMills finished 6-2)


@ OTC 44, USA 14 (OTC finished 6-2)


TMB 28, @ Ortonville 0 (TMB finished 5-3)


@ Wabasso 22, Red Rock Central 12 (RRC finished 4-4)


Sleepy Eye SM 34, RCW 32 (SESM finishes 2-6, RCW ends 1-7)



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Dawson-Boyd and Ortonville play in the mostly Class A Little Sioux Conference. The Little Sioux Conference has the solid teams of Class A state-second-ranked Adrian and fifth-ranked Minneota, as well as state-ninth-ranked Class AA Maccray, and a solid Class AA
Tracy-Milroy-Balaton team.

Wabasso plays in the Southern Minnesota Conference, a very tough all Class 1A conference. They played good teams from McLeod West (losing 6-2 in week 2), New Ulm Cathedral (winning 12-6), Springfield (losing 16-6 at Springfield), and Red Rock Central (winning 22-12 in the final game).

McLeod West finished 7-1, with their only loss in the opener to defending 1A champion Springfield, 27-0. Red Rock is a consolidation of Jeffers, Storden, Lamberton, and Sanborn. Red Rock finished 4-4, with their four losses being to Springfield, New Ulm Cathedral,
McLeod West, and finally, Wabasso. Springfield finished 7-1 and was ranked #4 in the last Class A state poll, and their only loss was a 14-7 loss to New Ulm Cathedral.

Wabasso is a solid team that has gone through a tough schedule. However, their schedule still isn't as tough as the Central Minnesota Conference. Not even close.

Quite honestly, Dawson-Boyd should be seeded #4. It's yet to be seen whether the difference between a 3rd or 4th seed matters. Either way KMS and Wabasso will be tough obstacles to overcome and hard-nosed, error-free football will be required to win Section 5A.

If they had the third seed, they would host Royalton (2-6), who is not as tough as Ortonville, playing against poorer competition but having the same record. The downside to being seeded number three is that a playoff-opening win would give them a trip to Wabasso, something we all love as Jaguar fans, right? (trip there in 2003 and in 2005). Wabasso would be their second-round opponent if they were seeded number three.

Wabasso finished 6-2, K-M-S finished 6-2. Wabasso's competition, while some being very good, is all in Class A. K-M-S always plays Ottertail Central in Week 2, and OTC is in Class AA. Therefore, K-M-S gets the tiebreaker just for playing OTC (They lost 23-18 this season), and thus the number one seed.

In my opinion, Wabasso is a better team than K-M-S. They have definitely played better competition. K-M-S's toughest opponent was Browerville, who finished 6-2. Their next toughest opponent was OTC, who finished 6-2 against mostly Class A competition.
All other Fighting Saints' opponents were poor or very poor competition. Wins over poor or very poor competition are nothing to get excited about.

Which brings me to talking about the two wins our Jaguars collected in their first two games. They did what they were supposed to do, and they beat Ogilvie by a big margin, then shutout Rockford in week 2. Ogilvie finished their season 2-6, with one of their wins coming over a very bad St.John's Prep team. Rockford finished 1-7 (if Maple Lake beat them in Week 8, which I think they did.)

Yes, those wins feel good, but they are nothing to be excited about. What's more exciting is how they played in their losses to Pierz, Holdingford, Howard Lake, and even Maple Lake. They
played hard through all of those games and never gave up against very tough, hard-hitting competition.

In all reality, their loss to Holdingford was really a win. They would have beaten Maple Lake were it not for the lightning storm we endured that Friday night at the high school. With just those two extra wins and the 4-4 record, suddenly we're in third place with 32 points...close to Wabasso at 36 and K-M-S at 37.

Then...if we had shown up and played well against Kimball, now we're 5-3 with 39 points, and the NUMBER-ONE SEED! If you sit and really think about it, I'm not even stretching things that much with that train of thought.

My other fact I'll throw out is that our defense is a much better unit than it was in 2005. The Jaguars gave up 340 regular-season points in 2005. That was bad, nothing more needs to be said about that. They scored 117 points, nothing to brag about either. In 2006, they scored 127 points, yet more importantly had only one shutout compared to three in 2005. This season, they gave up "only" 222 regular-season points. That is quite a difference (340-222).
The way our guys hit this season, and lay licks on the backfields of their opponents...it shows a much-improved defense. Defense wins championships. A section championship is the path to the state tournament. Enough said there.

Our football program is turning the corner...but we're not there yet.


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Now I will discuss the team that beat them out for the third seed, Dawson-Boyd, who finished 3-5 overall, and explain why I think they should be seeded number four instead of three.

Dawson-Boyd opened the season with a 20-14 loss to Ortonville, who ended up 2-6 and went into a tailspin towards the end of their season.

Their second game was against Canby, a team who started 0-6 before beating Ortonville 30-13 in game 7, and ended 1-7 overall. Dawson-Boyd barely beat Canby 14-6.

In their third game they lost 18-12 to Murray County Central, a team that finished 4-4 overall in the Camden (mostly 1A) Conference.

In game four, they were beat by state-ranked Minneota (7-1) 35-24. This was the Blackjacks most competitive game against a very good opponent.

In game five, Dawson-Boyd beat Class AA Tracy-Milroy-Balaton 32-8. This could be labeled a pretty big upset, as the Panthers ended their season 5-3, including a 28-0 spanking of Ortonville, with a close loss to Maccray 15-14 and Adrian (8-0) 23-20. Dawson-Boyd hosted TMB, and perhaps the Panthers were overlooking them going into the game. (TMB was 3-1 going into that game.)

In game six, Dawson-Boyd traveled to Maynard and was smoked by a very good Maccray team 33-0. Maccray finished 7-1 overall, and they are a Class AA team.

In game seven, Dawson-Boyd blanked a very, very bad Fulda team 28-0. Fulda finished their season 0-8, and scored more than 13 points in a game only ONCE, against Ortonville, barely losing to Ortonville 34-31 in Ortonville.

In game eight, against a very good Adrian team that ended 8-0 and is ranked in the top-four in Class A, the Blackjacks lost 14-0. This game was in Dawson, and Adrian was happy just to get out of there with a win.

To be frank, Dawson-Boyd was blanked in their final two games against a good AA team (Maccray) and a very good A team (Adrian). They beat up a very, very bad Class A team (Fulda)...so their final three games were nothing to be proud of no matter how you look at
it.

In all measures, our Jaguars are a better team who have played against considerably stronger competition than Dawson-Boyd. Not only that, but gosh-darn-it, they deserve a home playoff game even though they're 2-6, and they did not even show up at one of their games (figuratively speaking, at Kimball). Let's be honest, we have had good football teams since joining the Central-MN-Conference in 1999, but they just never got a good playoff seed (never higher than 6th) and could never get any momentum going entering the playoffs. This year's team tied the regular-season record of our 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2005 teams. However, this year's team will be rewarded with a home playoff game, simply because the bottom four teams in the section are really bad this season. I will argue all night that they deserve what they're getting, because they've worked for it and earned it.

Dawson-Boyd ended with 20 points, earning 7 points by beating Class AA Tracy-Milroy-Balaton, 12 points by wins over Fulda and Canby, and one point with their loss to Class AA Maccray. Our Jaguars finished with 20 points as well, with 14 points with wins over Rockford (8 pts- Class AAA) and Ogilvie (6 pts- Class A), and then six points with six losses to Class AA teams.

And Maple Lake, Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted, Eden Valley-Watkins, and Pierz would all tear up any Little Sioux Conference team other than Maccray, who could compete with at least Maple Lake and HL-W-W. The Jaguars played solid football against three of those four CMC
teams and were outplayed by defending Class AA champion Eden Valley-Watkins.

Then I go back to my earlier comment...what would a third-seed gain us? It would mean a second-playoff-game trip to Wabasso. It would be entirely possible to win there, but I think our chances against K-M-S are much better.

At that point, it would all depend how bad our guys want to play in the FargoDome for the Section 5A championship, the chance to say to anyone for the rest of their life that they played in the state football tournament, and the pride of saying they were the first Jaguars in post 1988-school history to take a boys team to "State".

The dates/times for the Section 5A tournament are: Tuesday October 24th 7:00,
Saturday October 28th 3:00, Friday November 2nd 3:00.

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Winning at K-M-S, on a Saturday afternoon in Murdock?

Yes, THEY COULD DO IT!

Beating Wabasso, who played in the Metrodome in 2005 in the Final Four of Class 1A, up in the FargoDome on a Thursday afternoon?

Yes, THEY COULD DO IT!

While the boys should not be looking ahead to the FargoDome, I sure am. Just don't tell them that.

After thrashing Class AAA Rockford 27-0 on September 8th, our Jaguar team celebrates the big win to start 2-0. Since then they have endured incredibly tough losses in various fashions, including a lightning storm no less, yet came out with their spirt in tact and will to succeed still present and accounted for.